Friday, May 21, 2010

Primary Thoughts

I worked at my local poll after work Tuesday. There were two people that I noticed voters were genuinely excited about. On the Republican side was Keith Rothfus who easily dispatched Mary Beth Buchanan. I was really hoping Buchanan would win, because it would be fun watching her blow her top on a regular basis. Too bad we will miss out on that.

"Experts" are already dismissing him and practically giving Altmire his seat back. The rationale is that he isn't the fundraiser Buchanan was. I think it will be a hard fought campaign with Rothfus running a low budget campaign working mostly on the ground and Altmire mostly on the air, because that is where their strengths currently lie. No one should forget that Altmire won a similar low budget ground campaign 4 years ago against a well financed Melissa Hart.

The person on the Democratic side that people seemed to be excited about was Dan DeMarco. Maybe they were just excited about another write-in opportunity on the voting machines. There were 4578 write-in votes for the Democratic nomination to the State Senate. We won't know the results for some time, but I have a hard time believing that a majority of those write-ins voted for Jane Orie.

DeMarco will also have to run a strong ground game, but will have the benefit of Jane Orie's indictment and her overall disposition which lately has not been very positive. Just looking at their campaign fliers, he looked warm and friendly, and she looked like she was going to bite my head off. I think DeMarco will be well served to maintain the positive vibes against Orie's negative vibes.

Later, I'll post on the Governor's race where John Corbett seems to be losing it (I hope I don't get subpoenaed for saying this.), and the Senate race where I think the more you find out about the real Pat Toomey the less you will like him.

The last very local race is for State House which will pit career politician Mike Turzai against Dr. Sharon Brown. She got 4166 votes in the Democratic primary which is significantly higher than any other nominee for Turzai's seat in the last 10 years. If you add in the votes Turzai received, she got 37% of the overall vote. That is a pretty good starting point considering that in the general election, the closest a Democrat got was 28%.

She will also need a strong ground game as well and might be well served to work with Dan DeMarco. The two of them working together against the pair of Mike Turzai and Jane Orie might be a good tactic.

They could tie Turzai in with Orie's troubles and also benefit from the anti-incumbency mood. No one that we will vote for in the fall has been in office longer than Turzai and Orie. Both are career politicians just like the kind that people hate. The only other incumbent that we will vote for is Jason Altmire, and he has only held an office of any kind for 4 years. That is hardly a career.

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